The pairings for the 16 team tournament have just been released, here is who is playing next weekend and what you can expect to see on ESPNU and ESPN2:
1. Virginia vs. Villanova-Surprised to see UVA as the #1 seed after two losses to Duke in the past three weeks. Villanova is the CAA champion for the first and only time as they go into the Big East next season. Upset Alert:10 out of 10. Villanova’s big win was over Hofstra, but they are playing the best defense in the nation as UVA’s offense is having trouble scoring. Villanova could win.
2. Syracuse vs. Siena-This will be the second year in a row that Syracuse is hosting the worst team in the NCAA Tournament from the MAAC at home. I was surprised that Syracuse didn’t get the top seed. Siena won the MAAC, but will have no chance against the Orange. Upset Alert: 1 out of 10.
3. Duke vs. Navy-Duke is the hottest team in the country and my dark horse pick to win the National Championship. Navy is the Patriot League Champion and had big wins over Maryland, Ohio State, and Bucknell. I think Duke is in a good spot, could be a #2 seed, but not #1 after losing to Maryland and Harvard earlier in the year. Upset Alert: 4 out of 10, Navy has some athletes, but can’t compete with Duke’s shooters if they are accurate. Might be motivated to play at home in the quarterfinals, but it won’t matter.
4. Princeton vs. UMass-Princeton is an At-Large selection. Beat both Hopkins and Syracuse, so they deserve a top 5 spot. UMass won the ECAC, which wasn’t too impressive, no real impressive victories either. Upset Alert: 3 out of 10. Princeton should get the win fairly easily.
5. Cornell vs. Hofstra-Probably the most competitive match up in the first round due to the proximity pairings of the NCAA trying to save $$$. Cornell won the Ivy League by default. Hofstra is an At-Large bid after losing to Villanova in the CAA Tournament. Hofstra has the motivation to play the quarterfinal round at home. Upset Alert: 8 out of 10. Don’t count either team out until the game ends.
6. UNC vs. UMBC-I knew that UNC and UMBC would be paired due to proximity. I was surprised that UNC was seeded so high. UNC had a big win over Hopkins and beat Maryland in the ACC Tournament. UMBC also beat Maryland and won the America East AQ. Upset Alert:9 out of 10. Don’t count out the Retrievers, they beat Maryland in this game a few years ago, and could easily beat another ACC team.
7. Notre Dame vs. Maryland-Will Yeatman has motivation to beat his old team at their home field. Maryland needs to prove that they deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament after a few bad losses to finish the season. Notre Dame is the GWLL AQ, but they played a horrible schedule despite being the only undefeated team left. They need to win to prove they deserve more respect. Upset Alert: 5 out of 10. Possible but not likely.
8. Hopkins vs. Brown- Hopkins should probably have a better seed, Brown beat Cornell to get in. Upset Alert: 3 out of 10. Not likely for Brown to win in Baltimore.
Surprises-Strength of schedule was not a factor as Loyola was left out. Bucknell was also a bubble team after going undefeated in the Patriot League regular season. I was surprised at how much proximity factored into the first round games, makes for a few more competitive games than usual. UVA, UNC, and Cornell definitely have it the most difficult.
Final Four Picks-Princeton, Duke, Syracuse, Hopkins. UVA will face Hopkins in the quaterfinals and lose in a rematch. All other games, the seeded team or higher seeded team will win.